A very high or very low draw is hard to overcome in big-field 6f handicaps at Kempton and it should pay to concentrate on those drawn between stalls 3 and 9 in the concluding 32RedSport.com Handicap tonight (8.45). Since mid-August last year, 14 of the 15 course and distance handicaps to feature 12 or more runners have fallen to one of these seven draw positions.
Miniskirt, forecast as the 5-2 second favourite for the Class 4 Ladbrokes Handicap over a mile at Southwell this afternoon (3.10), is two from two on Fibresand, but has only won against her own sex and could prove vulnerable taking on the boys.
Last-time out Southwell winners switching from Fibresand to Wolverhampton’s Tapeta surface have a terrible record, with only one winning and that was an odds-on shot in a three-runner claimer. Plenty of these go off at short prices and are worth opposing. Another angle is to look out for them at a more suitable track on their next outing. Last week’s well-backed Chelmsford City scorer Brassbound is a good example. He won at Southwell, was beaten when 5-2jf at Wolverhampton and then bounced back to score on the slower Chelmsford City Polytrack.
Masamah (stall 5 of 10) didn’t have the best of draws when a close third in a £28,000 to the winner race at Wolverhampton last time and the Marco Botti-trained veteran can defy top weight in the Unibet Handicap at Lingfield this afternoon (4.05).
The Ladbrokes Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Newbury (2.30) has been a tough race for favourite backers, with only one clear favourite and one joint-favourite obliging in the past 12 years. I’m happy to take on the market leaders in this year’s renewal and the one to side with is the Lucy Wadham-trained Attwaal, who tends to peak at this time of year...
Rich Again (stall 2 of 7) is on a five-timer after four wins at Wolverhampton but James Bethell’s much improved six-year-old might prove vulnerable now switching from Tapeta to Polytrack in the 7f Ladbrokes Handicap at Lingfield on Friday afternoon (4.30).
Trojan Rocket (stall 5 of 7) scored with a little more in hand than the neck margin suggests at Chelmsford City last time and can complete his four-timer when he returns to Essex tonight for the Class 2 Olswang LLP Backing Winners Handicap over the 6f trip (8.10).
The first three finishers pulled 19 lengths clear of fourth-placed Ardkilly Witness in Saturday’s Grade 3 Betbright Handicap Chase at Kempton but it’s fifth-placed Godsmejudge, who could pay to follow for the rest of the season.
Victory for the well-backed Triple Chocolate (4-1 from 11-1) last Wednesday further advertised the advantage of a middle-to-low draw in big-field 6f handicaps at Kempton. Since the start of 2013 there have been 31 handicaps featuring 12 or more runners and those drawn in double figures (stalls 10, 11 and 12) have a combined record of just three wins from 93 runners. Stall 1 (2-31), stall 2 (1-31) and stall 9 (2-31) haven’t fared much better and it should pay to concentrate on those drawn between stall 3 and stall 8 in the 32RedSport.com Handicap tonight (8.15).