Tommy Stack tends to do well on turf at this time of year and his runners at the Curragh are worth a second glance on Sunday. The yard has sent out 20 winners from 92 turf Flat runners in Ireland (21.7% strike-rate) during the month of March and backing them all blind would have returned a profit of £43.41 to a £1 level stake. Back in 2010 he sent out four from four at this meeting (10-1, 7-1, 6-1 and 9-2) but this system has not proved so lucrative in recent years.
Richard Fahey targets the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster and had we punted all his runners at this venue during the month of March we would have found 15 winners from 106 bets (14.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £28.50 to a £1 level stake. In handicaps only, the figures improve to 14 winners from 81 runners (17.3% strike-rate, +£46.50).
On Monday I discussed the poor record of last-time out Southwell winners on Wolverhampton’s Tapeta surface and the three to run this week all finished unplaced despite starting at single-figure odds...
Love Marmalade doesn’t look an obvious bet for the Download The Coral App Handicap over 1m4f at Wolverhampton this afternoon (4.00) – he hasn’t been seen since finishing last of nine at Ayr in September and has never won on the All-weather – but there’s a chance that the switch to Tapeta will bring about the required improvement.
With the last four Lincoln Handicap winners priced at 25-1, 20-1, 20-1 and 16-1, it may pay to look beyond the obvious when we tackle Saturday’s big race.